Know You Odds

It’s so important to know your odds of winning the hand. It’s one of the key ingredients between being a winning and losing player. Here’s a hand that I folded that may seem crazy, but was the right move.  I’m dealt QdKs in early position and limp in. The SB folds and the BB checks. 

Flop.

As 6s 9s

The BB and I both check.

Turn.

Qs.  

I picked up middle pair and the nut flush draw. He checked the ace on the flop, so I’m probably good. He may have an ace with a weak kicker, but I can’t always assume the worst. I’m betting, but the BB bets out. Huh? So I try and piece together his hand. He doesn’t have the Ace. The Q didn’t help, so he either hit the flush or was slowing playing a set. But if he has a set, the 3^rd spade would probably slow him down, so I put him on a made flush. Either way, I’m currently beat. But wait you say, you have to call, you have the river card to get a higher flush. True, but is that the right move. No. There are 13 spades in the deck, 3 are on the board and I have 1. That leaves 9 left. That’s not even considering the spades that were folded or if the BB has 2. So let’s say I have 9 outs, which gives me an 18% chance ‘at best’ of a spade coming on the river. There was $5 in pot preflop and his $4 bet makes it $9. If I call his bet, I’m putting in about 44%. In the long run I just won’t spike the flush enough times to make this a profitable move. I folded my cards face up and he showed his flush. I shouldn’t have been, but I was surprised when everyone reacted like I just threw the winner away.   

The Move

I was playing at the El Cortez Casino, downtown Las Vegas. If you’d never been there it was a small corner of the casino with three tables, two of which were only used. It was like the Star Wars bar. Some pretty crazy characters. The single blind was $1 and quarters were used by the casino for their cut. The room closed shortly after Jackie Gaughan died. He was the owner and played up until his death. I think he was around 92. Unfortunately, his better days were far behind him and his mind was only a shell of his former self. Sometimes he played every hand, something he’d skip 10 hands in a row, but one thing for sure, you never knew what he had and neither did he. Because he would expose his cards, the prime seat was to his left. Players took full value of this and exploded it to the fullest. I say that nicely, because I could say they cheated and stole his money, but all people’s values are different. Funny, for me just putting a face to it makes a different. If it’s a poker machine and I spot an advantage, “Cocktails!!” cause I’m gonna be here for awhile. Once I had the dream seat and look down to see AA. I can’t miss Jackie’s cards and he has KK. He bets and I call him down and show my AA. Everyone just looks at me and shake their heads. 

In the structure of the game it’s $1 to come in and $2, $3 or $4 to raise. I look down and see QsQh. Sweet! However, before it gets to me, there is a raise to $4. Normally this means QQ-AA. In this case, it’s coming from a player I’ve never seen before. Two people call and I fold. Turns out he had AK and I would have won the pot. I was still a new player and this slightly put me on tilt. Two hands later in the cutoff seat I see QQ again. Sweet! Early player makes it $4. He was a loose player so I come along. Button makes it $8. Damm it!! Early player folds. WTF, I can’t believe I have to fold QQ pre flop again! I know he has AA. I’m still thinking about losing the last pot and I just can’t get away from this hand again. I call. 

Flop.

Jh 7s Jd

Now what? I’m still beat. What a donkey (jackass). I check.

Button bet $3. 

It was weird, I don’t know why.  Maybe I was just ready to move up a level. Maybe alcohol was involved, but it came out of nowhere. I didn’t even think about it, I say, “Make it $6”

Button does a double take, thinks about it, hesitates and drops in $3 more. 

Turn.

3h

I don’t say a word and push in 4, $1 chips. Button looks at his cards, shakes his head with a look of a man that just lost to trip J’s and turns over his Aces. I can’t help it and show my Q’s. His mouth drops and he’s visibly stunned. I say, “I know you had aces, but if I don’t bet, I can’t win” 

I still have fond memories of that move!

Lucky

On my last trip one of the regulars says to me, “You sure are lucky”. I look at the dealer and she smiles, I just nod my head and agree, yeah I’m lucky. But what I wanted to say is, sure when I only play 15% of the hands dealt, mostly in position and make good decisions, hell yeah I’m lucky! Funny thing is if I mentioned this to him, he would say he does the same. It might go something like this.

“I only play premium hands. But I will play any suited K and of course any ace. And my favorite hand is J7. Also Doyle won with 10 2, so in his honor I always play that…………….   I hope I get lucky today”

Playing Ax

People just can’t fold an Ace. It’s like it has some magical power or something. Well hell, I have an ace, I can’t fold this! But a strange thing happens when an ace comes.  Here are a couple examples. 

Hero limps in with a4o

P4 and the SB limp in also, BB checks.

Board.

A 7 6 K J

Everyone checks to the river.

Our Hero wins the pot with the ace and says, “I didn’t like my kicker”. 

Let’s take the same scenario, but this time P4 shows A8. The first thing our Hero says is, “I knew I was out kicked”. 

I just don’t get it.

Quiz

You’re short stacked in a toury and the blinds and antes are eating up your chips. You find yourself on the button with A2o and it’s folded around to you.  The SB and BB are tight players, so you decide to shove and hope to pick up the blinds/antes. The SB folds quickly (whew) but the BB hesitates and unfortunately calls and shows A8h (ugh).   

Board:

5c Kd 10h Js

 

How many outs do you have to survivor and play the next hand?

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25

You’re actually not as bad off as it seems. Any Q (4) gives both a straight. Any J, K, 10 or 5 (12) gives both a pair and the 8 does not play. An A (2) would produce 1 pair with 10 high. Any 9 (4) and both hands have A high to the 9. And a 2 (3) give you the win.  So, more than half the cards will save you.